On February 28, 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran escalated sharply, triggering a new round of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. In response, Iran announced countermeasures and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy transport corridors. Approximately one-fifth of global oil and energy shipments pass through this strategic maritime route.
This geopolitical development has drawn significant attention from global commodity markets and the steel industry. For China's steel pipe sector, the conflict may affect export logistics, cost transmission, and regional trade patterns, making it an important topic for market participants and industry analysts.
This article analyzes the direct and indirect impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict on China's steel pipe exports, including both welded pipes and seamless steel pipes, and evaluates potential risks to the global supply chain.
In 2025, China's welded pipe exports maintained strong growth momentum, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade. This performance highlights the resilience and competitiveness of China's steel pipe industry in the global market.
However, data from the past five years (2021–2025) shows that Iran has never been a major export destination for Chinese welded pipes. Export volumes to Iran have consistently remained extremely low.
In 2025, China exported only 7,610 tons of welded pipes to Iran, accounting for just 0.12% of the total welded pipe exports.
This data clearly indicates that the Iranian market plays only a minor role in China's welded pipe export structure. Therefore, the current geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran is unlikely to create a significant direct impact on China's welded pipe exports.
China's seamless steel pipe exports reached 6.2828 million tons in 2025, representing a 9.79% year-on-year increase and setting a new historical record. This growth reflects the strong international competitiveness of Chinese seamless pipes.
Over the past five years (2021–2025), China's exports of seamless pipes to Iran have shown a gradual downward trend, and the share of Iran in total exports has steadily declined.
In 2025, exports of seamless pipes to Iran totaled 33,040 tons, accounting for only 0.53% of China's total seamless pipe exports.
This again confirms that Iran is not a core export market for Chinese seamless steel pipes, and therefore the direct impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict on China's seamless pipe exports remains limited and controllable.
Overall, both welded and seamless pipe exports from China to Iran have remained at very low levels over the past five years:
Welded pipe exports to Iran have consistently accounted for less than 0.25% of total exports.
Seamless pipe exports to Iran have declined from 1.49% to 0.53% of total exports.
These figures indicate that Iran has a minimal influence on China's steel pipe export market.
Therefore, the main pressure from this Middle East conflict does not originate from the Iranian market itself, but rather from potential disruptions to major Middle Eastern trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as a key shipping route for exports to countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime channel for international trade in the Persian Gulf region. Any disruption to navigation can directly affect the import and export activities of major Gulf countries, including:
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Kuwait
Qatar
Bahrain
If the Strait is partially or fully blocked, the consequences may include:
Shipping route detours
Higher maritime transportation costs
Longer delivery times
Supply chain disruptions
These effects may also spill over to regions such as Europe, North Africa, East Africa, the Red Sea region, South Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Since many Persian Gulf countries are important destinations for Chinese steel pipe exports, the stability of this shipping route is critical to maintaining export flows.
Data from 2025 shows that the Persian Gulf region has become a key market for China's welded pipe exports.
Exports to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates alone reached 679,300 tons, accounting for nearly 11% of China's total welded pipe exports.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted for an extended period, the following challenges may emerge:
Sharp increases in shipping costs
Vessel congestion at ports
Longer transportation cycles
Delays in contract fulfillment
Reduced export profit margins
These factors could significantly affect China's welded pipe exports to the Middle East.
Compared with welded pipes, China's seamless pipe exports show even higher dependence on the Persian Gulf market.
In 2025, exports to six core Gulf countries — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain — reached 1.653 million tons, accounting for 26.31% of China's total seamless pipe exports, nearly one quarter of the national export volume.
All these shipments rely heavily on transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the strait remains blocked or restricted, the following consequences may occur:
Delays in order execution
Slower cargo delivery
Increased transportation costs
Reduced market competitiveness
As a result, the seamless pipe segment is expected to experience greater export pressure than welded pipes.
Overall, the direct impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict on China's steel pipe exports remains limited, as Iran itself is not a key export destination.
Exports of both welded and seamless pipes to Iran account for less than 1% of China's total exports, meaning the conflict is unlikely to significantly affect total export volumes or growth trends.
However, the indirect impact through the Persian Gulf region is more significant.
Key findings include:
The Persian Gulf accounts for 26.3% of China's seamless pipe exports and about 11% of welded pipe exports.
The region is therefore the most sensitive area affected by the current geopolitical tension.
Importantly, the pressure generated by the conflict is primarily logistics-related rather than demand-related. Major challenges include:
Rising shipping costs
Longer maritime routes
Extended delivery cycles
Higher contract fulfillment risks
Reduced profit margins for exporters
Another notable aspect is the difference between product categories. Seamless pipes are more vulnerable to disruption because they are widely used in oil and gas projects, petrochemical infrastructure, and energy pipelines, which rely heavily on Middle Eastern markets.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a prolonged period, the impact could gradually spread to other regions such as Europe, North Africa, and South Asia, further increasing global logistics costs in the steel pipe trade.
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